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Wealth myth gradually drifts away: IPO price-earnings ratio plummets, PE boom may have receded (VC307)
The stocks with the highest P / E ratio for new shares issued since 2011 are Xinyan shares, which has a P / E ratio of 150.82 times, a record high. The recent listing of Tongkun shares, the issue price-earnings ratio is only 12.22 times, the data hit a new low of nearly 4 years. Although the two stocks are in different industries, and the issued share capital is also quite different, the drop of 150 to 12 still makes people feel the chill of the primary market. The PE craze for the whole nation may have gradually receded, and the wealth myth made by equity investment is already floating.
The issue price-earnings ratio gradually returns
The recent performance of Tongkun shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange is quite strong. Even if the stock index fell sharply on the 16th, the stock still rose 1.64%. The main reason may be traced back to its issue price. The stock's issue price-earnings ratio is only 12.22 times, hitting a record low price-earnings ratio since January 2007.
The broker's suggested inquiry range for the stock is 41.38 to 45.31 yuan, and the corresponding price-earnings ratio is around 20 times. But the final issue price-earnings ratio is set at 12.22 times, which is significantly lower than expected. Some analysts believe that this may be related to the risks faced by the fundraising projects. In fact, not all listed companies with high issue price-earnings ratios have good prospects for investment projects. Many listed companies have a lot of doubts when they are listed, but they can still issue high premiums. The low-cost issue of Tongkun shares may have a greater relationship with the recent weak overall market trend.
Among the stocks issued in 2011, Xinyan shares with the highest P / E ratio reached more than 150 times, and 5 stocks with P / E ratio more than 100 times were issued. Some listed company directors have bluntly stated that high-priced issuance is unwilling to leave profitable space to the secondary market. However, since May, the issue price-earnings ratio of many stocks has shown a downward trend. The data shows that since 2011, among the 10 stocks with the lowest P / E ratio, 6 stocks were issued in May, and the P / E ratio is mostly around 30 times, which is significantly lower than the first quarter.
National PE craze fades
The issue price-earnings ratio of Tongkun shares is only 12.22 times. Mr. Yuan, a private equity investment expert in Shenzhen, said that the generally accepted price-earnings ratio of equity investment in the market is about 10 times. If calculated by 10 times, the equity investors of Tongkun shares can only obtain a floating profit of about 30%, and this profit space is only enough for large capital shipments.
Li Daxiao, director of the British Securities Research Institute, believes that the era of heroes based on "plate size" can be said to be over. The facts also show that the growth of large-cap stocks is better than that of small-cap stocks. The statements of some listed companies did a good job when they were listed, but their performance soon changed. In this process, no matter whether it is a listed company or an underwriter, there is no plan to make a century-old store, and they just want to grab a run. The valuation of small and medium-cap stocks reached an extreme value at the beginning of the year, and the current decline shows that the market is effective.
So, will the upsurge of the nationwide PE retreat? In recent years, as equity investments have repeatedly created wealth myths, a lot of money has begun to flow into this market. Prior to the IPO, the equity investment market appeared to be "more monks and less porridge", and the price-earnings ratio was rising. At the end of 2010, a company in Shanghai won a high-end "worth" in the market with a price-earnings ratio of 22 times. Now, as the issue price-earnings ratio continues to decline, private equity investments have also begun to worry about the loss of profitability after the listing of the project. Although they are still looking for projects everywhere, the investment is obviously much more rational.
Part of the valuation of the primary and secondary markets upside down
Since 2011, the average price-earnings ratio of new shares has been around 60.8 times, which may be why private equity funds are so attractive. According to statistics, in the first quarter of 2011, private equity funds raised a total of 8.923 billion US dollars, equivalent to about 58 billion yuan, which were 4.33 times and 3.04 times the previous quarter and the same period in 2010. But as the issue price-earnings ratio drops, private equity sentiment begins to loosen. Will the secondary market win some funds?
From the perspective of price-earnings ratio comparison alone, the attractiveness of some stocks in the secondary market is no worse than that of private equity investments. Taking the banking sector as an example, the dynamic P / E ratio of bank stocks in 2011 was generally lower than 10 times. For example, Bank of Communications was only 6.1 times, Bank of Beijing was 6.9 times, and Industrial Bank, which is generally optimistic about growth, was only 7.5 times, about 10 times higher than the market. Of private equity investment is much lower.
From the perspective of growth, brokerages predict that the banking industry's expected profit will reach 33% during the year, while the small and medium board's profit growth rate in the first quarter is less than 33%, and the performance of many new stocks has been poor.
The core segment of the secondary market has certain advantages both in terms of valuation and growth. Analysts believe that water flows down. This inversion of valuation may inhibit the activity of private equity and may also bring some capital to the secondary market.
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