On December 22, the China Banking Association issued the “Banker Survey Report (2017)†(hereinafter referred to as the “Reportâ€) for bank wealth management, interbank business, internet finance, asset management, debt-to-equity swap, real estate, and financial risk prevention. In-depth research was conducted on hot issues that were highly concerned by many banking industries. Over 90% of bankers feel strongly about “enhanced supervision†The report of the 19th National Congress emphasized "the sound financial supervision system to maintain the bottom line of systemic financial risks." Just ending the Central Economic Work Conference, and also "preventing the resolution of major risks" is one of the tough battles in the next three years. The "Report" pointed out that risk management and internal control are the focus of this survey. A comprehensive comparison of the survey data from 2010 to 2017 shows that "overall improvement of risk management and control capabilities" has always been the core business and strategic focus of the Chinese banking industry. According to the "Report", more than 60% (64.8%) of bankers believe that the most important risk currently facing is still credit risk, which is manifested in the downturn of economic and industrial operations in some regions and the impediment of non-performing loan compression. At the same time, bankers pay more attention to the identification and monitoring of risks. Banks are also continuously strengthening pre-lending review, loan monitoring and firewall construction, and strive to cut off risks from the source and prevent risk transmission. In addition, under the background of strong supervision, compliance and strict accountability in the regulatory situation, the CBRC organized a series of special governance activities, which increased the intensity of self-inspection, supervision and supervision, and accountability punishment. According to the survey, over 90% of bankers “feel strong†about the increase in supervision, and nearly 50% of bankers “feel very strongâ€. Faced with increasing regulatory and administrative penalties, most bankers rated positive. 69.4% of bankers believe that “the bank is in favor of improving the compliance level and improving the risk internal control mechanismâ€, 69.2% of bankers believe that “it is beneficial to improve the risk compliance of managers and strengthen the responsibility of senior managementâ€, 67.5% of bankers believe "It is conducive to rectifying the chaos in the market and creating a good business environment." Third-party payment becomes the most important area of ​​concern for bankers The "Report" also shows that the development of the field of financial technology is receiving wide attention from all sides. Relying on the Internet, big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence and other technologies, financial technology not only helps banks achieve accurate marketing, enhance service experience, but also greatly improve their risk management and compliance management. In the “Report†survey on the socio-economic development trends that bankers should pay most attention to, technological innovation and technological progress are most concerned by bankers (59.1%), and this value has been improved every year (41.4% in 2015, 2016) 44.7%). The specific performance is that bankers continue to pay attention to the integration of technology and finance, but different types of banks have different concerns. Seventy percent of bankers believe that financial technology has the greatest impact on payment settlement, and third-party payment has become the most concerned area for bankers. Seventy percent of bankers believe that financial technology has the greatest impact on payment and settlement business. With the rapid development of online payment and mobile payment, third-party payment methods have become a payment mode that people use more and more frequently. From the perspective of different fields of financial technology, the survey results show that with the emergence and popularity of services such as Alipay and WeChat wallet, third-party payment has become the most concerned area for bankers, and has gained 48.0% attention. Smart investment attracted 32.9% of bankers' attention. Internet financial products sales (29.4%), electronic money (25.0%), electronic automated trading (23.4%) and online lending (23.0%) all attracted more than 20% of banks. Home attention. The Report also pointed out that bankers generally recognize that risks in the financial technology sector, especially the bank's own technology risks and the risks from the P2P network lending industry, are worthy of caution. Since 2017, the first-tier cities have gradually upgraded their purchase restrictions, and second-tier cities have gradually begun to restrict purchases. The heat of the real estate market in third- and fourth-tier cities has increased compared with previous years. According to the survey structure of bankers on the future trend of the real estate market, more than 70% of bankers believe that real estate prices and sales will rise or remain flat. It is worth noting that, apart from different types of cities, bankers are most optimistic about the real estate market in second-tier cities. Nearly 90% of bankers believe that sales and prices in the real estate market will rise or at least remain flat. This is a clear upward trend over the past two years; for first-tier cities, more than 70% of bankers believe that sales in the real estate market will rise or remain flat, and more than 80% of bankers believe that the real estate market prices will rise or remain flat. The two figures for 2016 are 90.2% and 92.1% respectively. The "Report" pointed out that due to the near-saturated real estate market in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other first-tier cities, and strict purchase restriction policies, some of the demand for home purchases has shifted to second-tier cities. The agglomeration effect of its population, industry and resources also has a “spill-over effect†on the surrounding suburbs and sub-central cities, which leads to a tendency to spread from the center to the periphery. As far as third- and fourth-tier cities are concerned, the Report pointed out that more than 70% of bankers believe that the sales volume and price of the real estate market will rise or remain at least flat. Last year, these two indicators were 51.4% and 56.6% respectively. . Under the background of the deepening of real estate regulation and control policies, the gradual decline of the real estate industry, and the pressure on regulatory policies, banks have maintained a cautious attitude toward real estate development loans. 27.5% of bankers believe that for cities that are “overheated†in the real estate market, development loans should be invested in security and general commercial and residential, and strictly control commercial housing loans. 38.6% of bankers believe that cities that are “cold†in the real estate market should design innovative and flexible personal housing loans and repayment methods to encourage residents to buy houses. At the current stage, compared with the de-stocking demand of the “cold†cities in the housing market, bankers pay more attention to controlling the new housing development loans in hot cities, and insist on the principle that “the house is used for living, not for speculationâ€. By region, 61.9% of bankers in the eastern region are more concerned about the risks of “overheating†in the real estate market, which is higher than that in other regions. According to the "Report", this is mainly because the "overheated" cities in China's real estate market are relatively concentrated in the first and second tier cities on the eastern coast. The real estate market is under the pressure of this year's regulatory policies, and the eastern region is using the cities that are overheated in the real estate market. Housing loans are more important. 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In the past year, the continued advancement of financial deleveraging, the continued development of strong regulatory policies, and the continuous penetration of financial technology have had a major impact on the operation of the Chinese banking industry. Bankers are particularly keen on this.
According to the survey report on the investment in bank information technology construction in the next three years, the investment of bankers in the construction of bank information technology will continue to increase. 45.7% of bankers said that they will accelerate the construction of information systems and increase their investment in the next three years, which is 5.5% higher than the 2016 survey results.
Chaoqicheng bankers believe that house prices will rise or remain flat