Papermaking: Product price increase expectations lead to trading opportunities

With regard to price increase information, several major manufacturers conducted tentative price hikes in mid-January. From the perspective of various raw materials products, due to the suspension of work during the Spring Festival holiday, the market supply was insufficient, and normal demand remained, especially in the fourth quarter of last year. The manufacturers have all suspended some of their production capacity. Therefore, we believe that the price increase is a normal phenomenon after the demand gradually digests the original production. Moreover, the major paper types have fallen sharply in the 3rd and 4th quarters of last year and averaged around 20%. Therefore, there are 100 -200 yuan price increase should be reasonable.

In terms of gross profit, the destocking of major manufacturers in the fourth quarter of last year, even if the sales volume is reduced, should also be able to digest the high price stocks in the middle of last year. In the same period, the price of paper pulp and waste paper fell even more, so after the completion of inventory The stabilization of the profit of Maori is expected.

The gross profit after the major manufacturers took out the three fees as of the third quarter of last year was between 10-15%. Therefore, in the event that the product price falls and the cost is high-priced raw materials, the operating profit will lose most in the fourth quarter, compared with the fourth quarter of last year. Synchronous decline in raw materials can help to stabilize the recovery of gross profit in the first quarter of this year, but since the first quarter's output and sales will not be very high, even if low-cost raw materials provide help, and some of the costs are rigid, the cost The proportion is unlikely to remain at the previous low level, or it will swallow a portion of operating profit. It is expected that the gross profit rate deducted from three expenses will be in the single-digit level. Therefore, the specific profit level must be observed, but the quarterly profit growth is realized. It is achievable.

The other is the sustainability, the paper points to see, due to a larger decline in the price of white cards, the price rebound can be expected, but the acceptance of demand is difficult to say, the decrease in the size of the offset paper in the cultural paper is mainly a relatively rigid demand for downstream books and other Coated paper is mainly subject to the release of planned capacity of about 2 million tons in 2010 or so. Although under current circumstances, it is estimated that it is unlikely to proceed as planned, but there is pressure.