Goldman Sachs: It is expected that the supply and demand of China's cardboard paper will deteriorate significantly

Goldman Sachs, the world's leading investment bank, recently reported that its view on the Chinese paper sector has turned cautious. Due to the increase in new production capacity and the slowdown in consumption, demand is weak this year and next. The supply and demand of cardboard paper will be greatly deteriorated.

On the other hand, due to the increase in imports, the bank expects the industry's utilization rate to drop from 83% last year to 75% this year, and further fall to 70% next year. Papermakers who are expected to have less business in cardboard or whiteboard paper, or cardboarder who can increase the amount of imported waste paper, will face less downward pressure.

Goldman Sachs downgraded Nine Dragons Paper (02689) rating from "buy" to "sell" and the target price also dropped from HK$14.2 to HK$6.3. In addition, it lowered the profit forecast for the 2019 fiscal year to 2021 fiscal year by 23% to 66%. It is expected that the Group's continuing profit will fall from RMB 4.68 billion in FY 2019 to RMB 2.66 billion in FY 2020. Further fell to 2.14 billion yuan.

The bank also downgraded the management of Lee & Man Paper (02314), from “buy” to “neutral”, and the target price dropped from HK$12 to HK$7.5. In addition, it lowered the continuous profit forecast of Lee & Man Paper from FY 2018 to FY 2020 by 17% to 28%, representing that the Group's continuing profit will be reduced from RMB 5.2 billion in FY 2018 to RMB 3.8 billion in FY 2019. The year was further reduced to 3.7 billion yuan.

In addition, the bank first gave Chenming Paper (01812) a “sell” rating with a target price of HK$3.9.

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