Pulp price is difficult to "turn over" in the short term

After a brief rebound, the main contract of the pulp futures 1906 contract returned to the weak, closing at 5094/ton yesterday, down 88 or 1.7%. Analysts said that the current inventory of paper mills is high, there is no obvious destocking driver for the supply and demand side of the pulp, and the cumulative inventory expectation of the imported imports continues to arrive in Hong Kong. In the future, large-scale probabilities still need to be reduced through inventory. Therefore, the short-term pulp futures price will once again test the previous low support.

Weak market demand

The latest data shows that the November paper price index was 1119.51 points, down 10.77% from the previous month and up 2.33% year-on-year.

Futures analysts said that the decline in the paper price index was mainly affected by the continued decline in the packaging paper market. Due to the downward pressure on the domestic economy and the decline in export trade, the demand for packaging paper is sluggish. In addition, since the autumn and winter, under the domestic environmental protection high pressure, small and medium-sized paper manufacturers have been forced to shut down or reduce production, high inventory of paper products, market demand is weak, resulting in further price declines, short-term pulp prices may remain low consolidation trend.

"In December, the news of the domestic paper mills is still going on. The packaging paper market is expected to usher in the peak season of the Spring Festival. But the current inventory of paper mills is high. Still relying on digesting stocks," said futures analysts.

In terms of spot, the spot price of imported softwood pulp in Shandong is relatively stable, and the average price of Chilean silver star is 5575/ton. The supply of wood pulp in the spot market in Guangdong is stable, and the price of coniferous pulp Chilean silver star is 5600-5700/ton.

Short-term rallies

From a fundamental point of view, futures analysts said that the latest global manufacturer inventory days showed that the softwood and hardwood pulp in October were 32 days and 41 days respectively. Compared with historical data, the level of coniferous pulp stocks is still at a high level, and the broadleaf pulp is at a normal level. Considering that the demand at the end of the year is weak, and the supply is rising steadily, the accumulated inventory is still expected to be strong. Is facing greater destocking pressure. As of the end of November, Changshu and Qingdao port stocks were 540,000 tons and 900,000 tons respectively. Qingdao's stocks continued to record high and the pressure was very high. Recently, the broad-leaf stocks outside Hong Kong were greatly accumulated. It is expected that the hardwood pulp will drag the needles again. Pulp.

From the level of inventory of finished products of paper mills, after the price factor of wood pulp was removed, the inventory in October was 9.8 million tons. Since September 2017, it has continued to accumulate, and it is currently at a medium-high level, and there is also some pressure.

In terms of downstream profit levels, the current price of various types of paper continues to be weak, and processing fees continue to fall. Overall, the downstream is currently in a state of loss, and there is no obvious repair situation, which will be a continuous pressure on the market.

"At present, there is no obvious de-stocking driving factor for the supply and demand side of the pulp, and there are large stocks of raw materials and finished products in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain. The cumulative inventory is expected to continue after the arrival of the port, and the future probability will still need to go through price reduction. Inventory, which in turn leads to adjustments in the profit structure, will continue to put pressure on the disk," said futures analysts.

For the market outlook, futures analysts said that the rebound in the price of pulp futures will fall back, and in the short term, it will once again test the support of the previous lows.

Futures analysts said that the pulp futures test 4950 / ton first-line support position, the upper test 5300 / ton regional pressure level, short-term or range fluctuations.

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