Infinite silky rain

Allusion to the "infinite silky rain as fine as a dragonfly"

Qin Guan is a proud student of Su Dongpo and a member of the "Shumen Four Scholars". Many well-known classics are like "soft feelings like water, good times like dreams", "when the two emotions are long, they are in the dynasty." "The moon is lost, the fog is lost, the building is light, the sky is like a dream, the infinite silk is as fine as a dragonfly," and so on.

The phrase “Infinite Silky Rain is as fine as 愁” comes from “浣溪沙”. The whole word is: “Indifferent and light cold on the small building, Xiaoyin rogue is like poor autumn. The light smoke flow painting is quiet. Free flying flowers are like dreams, infinite silky rain is as fine as愁. Bao curtain hangs a small silver hook.” This word describes a woman in the rainy spring touches the scene, meaning: thin spring cold gently infiltrated into the house It makes people feel bored, as if they have entered the late autumn. The screen with faint smoke and sloping water stands quietly on the side of the empty house. Outside the window, the petals dance freely in the air, just like a dream is illusory, and the infinite rain falls down like a sorrowful sorrow. I went to the window and hung the curtains with jewels on it with small silver hooks.

Tightening liquidity

As I read the article "Dream Back to 1997" on January 8, I said:

"Before the zero o'clock sounded on July 1, 1997, Prince Charles slowly lowered the m-flag in the heavy rain, proclaiming the end of the colonial rule of the British Empire in Hong Kong in 156 years.

No coincidence, the next day 'Asian Financial Storm' officially broke out. The financial turmoil announced the implementation of the floating exchange rate system from Thailand on the same day, which led to the sharp depreciation of the Thai baht and the beginning of financial market chaos. It quickly swept across Asia, including Malaysia, Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and China. At the stage of the Asian economy, the economic downturn has caused it to fall into a depression for many years.

In the meantime, the European and American stock markets also turbulently. In October 1997, the US stock market plummeted, similar to the panic slump in October 1987. Of course, looking back, it is just a reverse wave in the sky, but it is such a wave that is enough to reverse the lives of countless investors.

The impact of this 'Asian financial turmoil' on China is: Hong Kong stock market plunged from a maximum of 16820 points on August 7, 1997 to 8775 points on October 28, just wailing for more than two months, then fell to 1998. On August 13th, at 6544, it was only at the end of the year. After one year, it was missing 60%. The Hong Kong property market was even more tragic, with a drop of 70%. Many stars and tycoons turned from poor billions to poor people. As for the Chinese property market represented by Guangzhou, it also peaked in the same period. It has been reversing until around 2003, with a decline of 60% to 70%. In the meantime, the Chinese stock market has reacted in advance, plummeting from 1510 to 1510 on May 12, 1997. 1025 on the 23rd.

Of course, there are not many people who know this history (especially the property market). You can look at the analysis of the property market where the screen is swiped and the click rate is 100,000. It is almost high-profile and declares that the Chinese property market is always forever. It has never fallen in the past three decades. I estimate that the authors of these articles may have been mainly born in the 1980s and 1990s. Of course, even if they were born in the 1960s and 1970s, they were limited to the fact that almost all provinces in China were still far behind Guangdong in the economy, and the impact of the financial turmoil was relatively Smaller, so the impression is not deep.

Twenty years is like a dream. From the current international and domestic environment, it is most similar to that in 1997. Of course, today's scale is much larger than that of the current year. Therefore, if the '97 model' is applied, it can be considered as an enlarged version of 1997, including The property market and the stock market. However, it should be noted that history cannot be completely copied, and the specific details will not be one-to-one correspondence, so don't ask for a sword. Since it is a dream back to 1997, it is as ambiguous as a dream. ”

At present, China is tightening its liquidity: tightening liquidity is the global mainstream including China in the future, but China itself has the embarrassment of riding a tiger. Therefore, when dealing with problems, it seems that there are some contradictions and contradictions. After all, it will die. Then I had to relax. However, in general, it is still to be led by the global mainstream, so it is always passive.

Infinite silky rain

The previous week (April 23 to 27), the market was low at two heads and high in the middle. There was a low point of 3045 points and 3049 points that was close to 3041 points before April 18, and finally closed at 3082 points, up 0.35. %. In addition to the Shanghai Composite Index, the other major indices rose and fell in the previous week: SSE 50 liters 0.23%, Shanghai Securities 180 liters 0.21%, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 plunged 0.11%, Shenzhen Stock Exchange 100 fell 1.28%, Shenzhen Securities Index fell 0.81 %, Shenzhen Composite Index fell 0.12%, small and medium board fell 0.94%, small and medium board fell 0.36%, the GEM index rose 1.28%, and the ChiNext rose 1.23%.

Last week (May 2nd to 4th), there were only three trading days. The market was not shocked. The high and low points were on Sunday (May 3), which were 3056 points and 3105 points respectively, and finally closed at 3091 points. It rose by 0.29%. In addition to the Shanghai Composite Index, the other major indices rose and fell last week: SSE 50 fell 0.27%, Shanghai Securities 180 liters 0.26%, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 liters 0.47%, Shenzhen Stock Exchange 100 liters 1.44%, Shenzhen Securities Index rose 0.99 %, Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.73%, small and medium board index rose 1.87%, small and medium board rose 1.12%, GEM index rose 0.51%, and ChiNext rose 0.20%.

As for the final rise and fall of the major indices in April, the SSE fell 2.74%, the Shanghai 50 fell 2.52%, the Shanghai 180 fell 2.76%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 3.63%, and the Shenzhen 100 fell 5.58%. The index fell 5.01%, the Shenzhen Composite Index fell 4.19%, the small and medium board index fell 5.98%, the small and medium board fell 4.32%, the ChiNext Index fell 4.99%, and the ChiNext fell 3.59%.

It can be seen from the above data that if the decline of 14.64% and the average daily average of 1.46% in the 10 trading days from 3587 on January 29 to 3062 on February 9 can be called “storms”, then 3 On the 13th of the 13th, after the end of the "Escape Wave", it has fallen by 7.26% in 35 trading days so far, and the daily average of 0.21% of the decline can only be counted as "bleak drizzle".

It is the "infinite silky rain as fine as the scorpion", the violent storm has its fear of shaking and swaying, and the breeze and drizzle has more lingering pains.

The wind is not the end, the shower is not the end of the day

The so-called "the wind is not the end, the shower is not the end of the day", meaning that the wind can not blow the whole morning, the rainstorm is not a whole day. Everything is always circulated in the process from fast to slow and then fast. Since the market has been falling for so long before the market, there will be a sharp drop in the future, especially the bank that has the greatest impact on the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50. The index has been trading sideways in its annual line since the end of March. During the period, it was slightly stronger than the broader market. However, on Friday (May 4th), it began to break down. At the same time, the Hong Kong stock market also broke down. The momentum of going offline, combined with factors such as unfavorable news at any time, is indeed necessary to prepare for the sudden fall.

Of course, although the mid- and long-term megatrends of the broader market are determined to be downward, the process of decline is difficult to control precisely. After all, it is subject to various factors. Therefore, whether it is to continue to fall, or to break down, In short, the general direction is right, this must be clear.